The Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite mission from NASA was brutal and brief. It all started on October 9, 2009, when the hull of a spent Centaur rocket stage slammed into Cabeus crater near the Moon's south pole with the force of around 2 tonnes of TNT. It came to an end a few minutes later, when the following spacecraft sailed through and investigated the lofted plume of the debris before crashing as well. Water made up around 6% of the plume, likely from ice trapped in the crater's dark depths, where the temperature never climbs beyond -173°C. The Moon, it turned out, wasn't as dry as the Apollo crew had thought. “That Jennifer Heldmann, a planetary scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center who collaborated on the expedition, says, "was our first ground reality that there is water ice.
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Today, Heldmann intends to launch another rocket to investigate lunar ice—but not on a one-way mission. She's interested in Starship, a monster being developed by private rocket company SpaceX that would be the world's largest flying object. Heldmann's Starship could carry 100 tonnes to the Moon, more than double the lunar payload of the Saturn V, the workhorse of the Apollo missions. She fantasises about bringing robotic excavators and drills, as well as recovering ice from freezers aboard Starship, which may return to Earth with tens of tonnes of goods. She may learn about the origin of the ice by evaluating features like its isotopic makeup and depth. billions of years ago against the solar wind's gradual, continuous implantation. She might also discover where ice is plentiful and pristine enough to support human outposts. "It's crucial for exploration and high-priority science," Heldmann adds.
When Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, talks about Starship, he usually talks of human exploration: Make mankind a multi-planetary species by establishing outposts on Mars! Save humanity from extinction! However, Heldmann and many others believe that the heavy lifter will fundamentally alter the way space scientists operate. They could fly larger and heavier equipment more frequently—and for considerably less money, assuming SpaceX's forecasts of cargo launch costs as low as $10 per kilogramme are correct. On Mars, rovers might be deployed as herds rather than as individual units. Space telescopes might become more widespread, as could fleets of satellites in low-Earth orbit. Astronomy, planetary research, and Earth observation might all go further than ever before.
Of course, Starship isn't yet a reality. All eyes will be on the first orbital launch test, which is slated to take place in the coming months. Even if it is a success, no one knows if SpaceX will be able to realise its aim of launching rockets on a daily basis and recycling them several times. It's also unclear if there will be a demand for a rocket capable of putting that much into space. However, scientists must prepare, according to Heldmann. "We in science must be ready to make use of such skills when they become available.
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As does NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory plans and builds many space scientific missions, according to Casey Handmer, a former JPL software developer. He has claimed in a series of challenging blog postings titled "Starship is still not understood," that Starship will upend the old approach of performing space science—spending billions of dollars to build one-of-a-kind equipment that operates perfectly. He claims that if NASA centres do not develop methods to take risks and produce more goods at a lower cost, they will be supplanted by corporations ready to do so. "The writing is on the wall," says Handmer. "And all NASA centres should think very seriously."
ON A BLIZZLY NIGHT In FEBRUARY, Musk went onto a stage in Boca Chica, Texas, the site of SpaceX's Starbase launch facility, to provide a public update on the development of Starship. The newest prototype, nearly 120 metres tall and drenched in lights, towered behind him: the Starship vehicle, which carries passengers or cargo and rests on top of a Super Heavy launcher. The prototype wasn't ready for flight, and the FAA hadn't given SpaceX authorization to launch it from Starbase—but it was still a beautiful background, packed with coiled purpose. Musk embarked on an impromptu speech on the ideology powering him and his organisation beyond Earth after greeting the throng of devoted rocket nerds. "Why construct a massive, reusable rocket?" Why should life be multi-planetary? I believe this is extremely crucial for the future of life itself."
The Falcon 9, SpaceX's workhorse rocket, has already shaken up the aerospace industry. SpaceX pioneered reusability with that rocket, using retrorockets and steerable fins to direct the first stage to a landing after reentering the atmosphere. Today, SpaceX frequently repaints and relaunches these "flight tested" stages; in June, the firm flew one of these "flight tested" stages for the record 13th time. Another milestone is on the way: the business plans to launch more than 50 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets this year, or around one per week on average. The guaranteed reuse and quick launch cadence are two of the reasons SpaceX can charge $67 million for a Falcon 9 launch, which is significantly less than its competitors.
Musk drew his designs for a rocket to populate Mars in 2016 at the International Astronautical Congress in Mexico, which he would eventually dub BFR (Big Falcon Rocket, in family-friendly terms, but you get the joke). The concept developed into Starship, but the emphasis remained on price and reusability, resulting in launches that are as drab and mundane as FedEx cargo flights. The rocket's body is made of stainless steel, which is heavier than the aluminium alloys used in most rockets but less expensive and easier to build. The 33 Raptor engines squeezed into the Super Heavy's tail utilise methane rather than standard kerosene-based rocket fuels, not only because it is less expensive, but also because it can be collected on Mars by mixing carbon dioxide and water. The energizer is planned to return to the launchpad after a 6-minute journey; the manufacturer claims it can be refuelled and ready to launch again in an hour The starship can also be reused. The objective is for each vehicle to be able to launch three times each day.
Once in orbit, a laden Starship might be refuelled by a "tanker" version of the vehicle, allowing it to transport its 100 tonnes of payload to the Moon or Mars. Musk highlighted during the February presentation how a single Starship, launched three times per week, could hoist more than 15,000 tonnes to orbit in a year—roughly the same amount as all cargo hauled in spaceflight history. Musk has stated that each launch may someday cost as little as $1 million, or $10 per kilogramme to low-Earth orbit. NASA's Space Launch System, which is due to launch for the first time this month, is the only rocket with capabilities comparable to Starship. The agency's auditor resigned earlier this year.
SCIENCE HAS BEEN MOSTLY AN AFTERTHOUGHT FOR MUSK. However, Heldmann has been astonished that Starship has been an afterthought for many planetary scientists.
In 2020, she and a group of scholars and business insiders submitted a white paper extolling the benefits of Starship to the planetary science "decadal survey," a significant community exercise that aids NASA and Congress in setting long-term objectives. "It's a good moment to try to bring this thought to the attention of others," she says. Heldmann and her colleagues proposed that NASA establish a separate budget line for missions that rely on Starship.
The proposals were accepted in the survey. The survey group specifically highlighted Starship and quoted concepts from Heldmann's study in its April report. The group suggested a financing line related to Starship's specifications and stated that NASA should plan to capitalise on the rocket's potential. The group stated that "both cargo and human trips to Mars provide enormous prospective research possibilities."
Rubin also hopes to use Starship to build a 30-meter-long telescope in orbit. Limbed robots could carefully place mirror parts on a scaffolding to construct a massive mirror capable of detecting the universe's earliest galaxies and searching for indications of life in the atmospheres of Earth-like exoplanets. "As you develop larger and larger telescopes, the research scales up pretty rapidly," Rubin explains.
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If hundreds of tonnes are going into orbit, someone will find out how to install a telescope up there without NASA's help.”
Lionnet informs that reduced transportation will only cut the cost of missions by a certain amount. According to Lionnet, the launch expenses for significant scientific initiatives are typically between 5% and 10% of the entire cost. The proportion was significantly lower for JWST. A trip on an Ariane 5 rocket, JWST's launcher, typically costs around $175 million, or roughly 2% of the mission's overall cost. "A complicated telescope will remain a complex telescope," argues Lionnet.
However, cheaper launches may let the probes themselves be less expensive, as there will be less need for space-rated elements that save weight or size. Planetary scientists using Starship might simply buy a spectrometer to outfit a rover.
HAMMER, WHO NOW WORKS AS A CLEAN-ENERGY ENTREPRENEUR, WOULD LIKE astronomers and planetary scientists to think boldly. Why not use a 1000-meter telescope instead of a 30-meter one? Why not mass-produce probes capable of surveying a large number of asteroids? Why not visit all of the outer planets within the next decade? Or visit most planets per year?
Handmer believes that part of the problem is cultural: NASA engineers want to do things perfect the first time, at whatever cost—the hugely expensive, long-delayed JWST being a prime example. Of such flagship missions, he compares them to "mediaeval cathedrals." Handmer predicts that in order to fully utilise Starship's enormous capacity, NASA will need to produce 100 times as much material at a quarter of the typical cost.
But, provided that all of those difficulties are resolved, he admits that frequent, low-cost, high-volume launches might give "a tremendous opportunity for us to transform how we get things done and be ready to take more chances." JPL has already considered it, he adds, such as how to use standardised, lower-cost components in NASA's unique deep-space missions.
There is a significant asterisk on the rocket revolution heralded by Starship. "We haven't been able to act on it yet because it's not true," Manning adds. Many scholars will be following Starship's maiden orbital launch attempt to determine if that massive silvery rocket is a picture of space science's future or a mirage.
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